U.S. Annual Retail Inflation Slows in November

U.S. Annual Retail Inflation Slows in November

Dec 12, 2018

U.S. consumer price growth slowed in November, underlining arguments for the Federal Reserve to take a pause in monetary policy tightening after the rate hike expected at its meeting next week.

The Labor Department said on Wednesday its consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged from a month earlier, slowing from the 0.3% increase seen in November.

Analysts had forecast a 0.1% increase.

In the 12 months through November, inflation rose 2.2%, in line with expectations and down from 2.5% in October.

Core CPI, a key gauge of underlying consumer price pressures that excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.2% from a month earlier, matching consensus and the prior increase. The annual increase in the core CPI was 2.2%, also in line with analysts’ estimates.

Core prices are viewed by the Federal Reserve as a better gauge of longer-term inflationary pressure precisely because they exclude the volatile food and energy categories. The central bank usually tries to aim for 2% core inflation or less.

Economists currently expect the Fed to move ahead with a quarter-point increase of interest rates at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Dec. 19, though skepticism over the outlook for 2019 has grown on the back of concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.

Markets are currently pricing in just one rate hike for next year, as policymakers have recently shown a more dovish stance.

Traders will pay close attention to next week’s decision, which includes an update to the Fed’s economic projections, including interest rate forecasts in the dot-plot, as well as a follow-up press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

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